Publication Details

An analysis of the relationship between driver injury and vehicle age for automobiles involved in North Carolina accidents during 1966 - 1970

Type: article

Author(s): Koch, Gary G.; Reinfurt, Donald W.

Pages: 18-Jan

Url: https://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/0001457574900116

Publication Date: Sept-1974

Journal: Accident Analysis & Prevention

Volume: 6

Issue: 1

Issn: 00014575

Doi: 10.1016/0001-4575(74)90011-6

Abstract: In a recent article, Joksch [1971a] has suggested that the chronologic age of an automobile (as distinct from its model year) is an important factor with respect to injury severity resulting from motor vehicle accidents. Moreover, he states that such a relationship is relevant to the interpretation of results obtained by Campbell [197Oa] in a study of injuries to unbelted drivers in 270,000 vehicles involved in crashes in North Carolina during 1966 and 1968. For that data, an  injury index (adjusted for accident type, impact site and speed) is used as a standard for comparing various car models. As Joksch notes, the effects of vehicle age were ignored in this study. Thus. he hypothesizes the following conclusion of that study "Index values range downward from 112 for 1961 models to 86 for 1968 models. This suggests that for every 100 serious and fatal driver injuries in 1968 models. 130 would have occurred in a similar array of crashes had 1961 models been involved." be modified to "Most of the reduction in the injury index between 1961 and 1966 is due to a stable trend of injury risk increasing with vehicle age after 3 or 4 yr and not to vehicle improvements with model year." Support for this statement was then formulated in terms of an analysis of annual accident statistics from the Virginia Department of State Police (1961-1969) and from the New Hampshire Department of Safety, Division of Motor Vehicles (1961- 1968) with respect to an injury index which reflected the risk of injury in an accident during a particular year for a vehicle of a specific age relative to the average of all accident involved vehicles. Although this index was directly analogous to that used by Campbell, it did not account for the effects of accident type, impact site, and speed. For this reason, Joksch recommended a further investigation of the North Carolina data in order to determine the effects of vehicle age on a suitably adjusted index of accident severity. Such a detailed analysis is the subject of this report.