Publication Details
Predictive safety analysis final report
Type: Paper
Author(s): Montgomery County Planning Department, ; UNC Highway Safety Research Center,
Publisher: Montgomery County Planning Department
Publication Date: Jul-2022
Address: Maryland
Abstract: Between 2015 and 2019, there were over 59,000 crashes in Montgomery County, resulting in over 1,200 severe injuries and nearly 15 0 fatalities. There is an element of randomness to where these individual crashes occur, but there is much less randomness to the types of streets and intersections where these crashes occur. As part of Montgomery County’s Vision Zero goal to eliminate tra ffic deaths and severe injuries by 2030, Montgomery Planning is using a new strategy to improve road safety for drivers, bicyclists and pedestrians called the Predictive Safety Analysis. This proactive data - driven approach works to prevent severe and fatal crashes before they happen. The Predictive Safety Analysis estimates the expected number of crashes at a given roadway segment or intersection through Safety Performance Functions (SPFs). Safety Performance Functions (SPFs) are equations (or models) that predict the number of crashes on roadway segments and at intersections based on exposure, roadway characteristics, and other variables. This analysis then allows the county to prioritize where and how to most effectively invest in safety improvements throu gh capital projects, development approvals, and master planning.